Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 14.629466 16.694335 18.909864 21.459512 24.308172 27.388365 30.966326
2025-08-10 11.526813 14.333008 17.570908 21.565405 26.341718 31.849584 38.660552
2025-08-17 9.953169 13.079224 16.857285 21.726324 27.798135 35.080435 44.431512
2025-08-24 8.649217 11.952311 16.115272 21.694309 28.915129 37.878813 49.771841
2025-08-31 7.591060 10.968359 15.384930 21.509197 29.694500 40.159405 54.435692
2025-09-07 6.838301 10.290539 14.958747 21.633428 30.813512 42.860174 59.700540
2025-09-14 6.371102 9.944557 14.923611 22.239248 32.558125 46.411798 66.194282
2025-09-21 5.720701 9.262703 14.347606 22.022947 33.121342 48.357620 70.568507
2025-09-28 4.955409 8.330102 13.324397 21.071189 32.555486 48.676139 72.662689
2025-10-05 4.698515 8.148152 13.383362 21.687650 34.251351 52.208461 79.373422
2025-10-12 4.424247 7.909785 13.330581 22.117574 35.674375 55.388854 85.686749
2025-10-19 4.058492 7.486846 12.954134 22.014223 36.272302 57.371117 90.314292
2025-10-26 3.682961 7.020184 12.482802 21.744037 36.618805 59.026098 94.581426
2025-11-02 3.399017 6.684738 12.198133 21.749209 37.386268 61.337966 99.919533
2025-11-09 3.180324 6.442085 12.044438 21.947301 38.451869 64.125735 106.058802
2025-11-16 2.940375 6.137512 11.760052 21.902391 39.110556 66.294265 111.309242
2025-11-23 2.701741 5.811910 11.412116 21.720100 39.520891 68.070460 115.990714
2025-11-30 2.531761 5.601214 11.250382 21.843858 40.436646 70.672748 122.052800
2025-12-07 2.444809 5.545520 11.363949 22.455428 42.201366 74.704607 130.533733
2025-12-14 2.252679 5.259469 11.029219 22.237076 42.517389 76.364369 135.214684
2025-12-21 1.985818 4.792094 10.315864 21.277193 41.478171 75.718989 136.071021
2025-12-28 1.929069 4.765373 10.449404 21.898942 43.271667 79.891502 145.050401
2026-01-04 1.854028 4.691728 10.484336 22.332568 44.739915 83.555210 153.285541